Outline

The environmental changes in the Tsushima Current medial zone that are caused by global environmental changes and fluctuations in the environment of the East China Sea, and the common and unique aspects of the effect on individual bays, will be determined. In addition, the role of MPA designation in preserving biodiversity will be determined, and integrated land-sea management methods that integrate land areas with sea areas will be proposed. Moreover, methods for integrated management of the Sea of Japan and the Tsushima Current conducted with the cooperation of Japan, China, South Korea, Russia and other nations will be proposed.

Subtopic (1) Proposed management methods for international enclosed coastal seas

Description of Research (FY 2014 – 2016 Achievements)

In order to verify the reproducibility of lower trophic level and higher trophic level ecosystem models for the Sea of Japan, we coordinated existing site data and provided the data to each subtopic. We also prepared scenarios for forecast future changes. By a stable isotope analysis, we identified ecological relationships in the Sea of Japan and stressed the importance of management of lower trophic level ecosystem. Based on the results over a period of three years, we proposed a three-layer management in the Sea of Japan as a new ocean management method for this region. Then, we also started developing the Integrated Land-Sea Management for Toyama Bay.

Description of Research (FY 2017 Plan)

We will verify the management measures at each level of the three layers in the Sea of Japan. For the management of the first layer, we will propose a joint international management using the Northwest Pacific Regional Action Plan (NOWPAP) framework, and its feasibility will be examined based on the views of each country. For the management of the second layer, we will consider the appropriate placement of marine protected areas (MPAs) and ecologically and biologically significant sea areas (EBSAs) in collaboration with Subtopic 3. For the management of the third layer, the Integrated Land-Sea Management Strategy for sustainable use (in particular on submarine groundwater discharge) will be studied by using the Toyama Bay lower trophic level ecosystem model.

Subtopic (2) 1 Construction of a model to predict environmental changes in the Japan Sea

Description of Research (FY 2014 – 2016 Achievements)

Using the developed lower trophic level ecosystem model for the Sea of Japan, we calculated the reproductive rate for the past ten years in order to identify the effect of nutrient supply from the East China Sea on the temporal variations in the lower trophic level ecosystems in the Sea of Japan. We also developed a lower trophic level ecosystem model in which the East China Sea is included and tried to identify the factors of affecting variations in nutrient load.

Description of Research (FY 2017 Plan)

We will identify the mechanism for variations of nutrient load from the East China Sea and the response of lower trophic level ecosystems in the Sea of Japan to the variation. Using the variation scenario of nutrient discharge from China, we will forecast variation in lower trophic level ecosystems in the Sea of Japan, and select candidates for critical monitoring items as well as monitoring sea areas for transboundary management of nutrient load.

Subtopic (2) 2 Construction of a model to predict environmental changes in the Japan Sea

Description of Research (FY 2014 – 2016 Achievements)

We developed a lower trophic level ecosystem model for the Sea of Japan and, through data assimilation using dissolved oxygen data, improved the model to manage high-quality reproduction. We also began forecasting future variations based on the IPCC climate change scenarios and the change scenarios of nutrient load from the East China Sea and land areas. Then, we forecasted the environmental change of the Sea of Japan in 100 years.

Description of Research (FY 2017 Plan)

Through a re-analysis of data in the past 50 years, we will estimate forecast accuracy. At the same time, we will forecast the physical, chemical and biological environment of the Sea of Japan, based on two change scenarios on climate change, three change scenarios on nutrient discharge and a scenario on the South-North Water Transfer Project.

Subtopic (3) Construction of a higher trophic level ecosystem model for the Japan Sea

Description of Research (FY 2014 – 2016 Achievements)

We developed a transport and survival model of sagittated calamary and snow crabs in order to identify what kind of effects the response mechanisms of material circulation and lower trophic level ecosystems in the Tsushima Warm Current give on them, and at the same time we reviewed the location and timing of marine protected areas (MPAs). We developed a lower trophic level ecosystems model to verify the effects of land-sea management on Toyama Bay.

Description of Research (FY 2017 Plan)

We will identify the effect of future environmental changes in the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea on spawning ground and the transport and/or survival of eggs and larvae of sagittated calamary and snowcrab and consider the appropriate placement of static and dynamic MPAs to adapt to future changes. We will also verify the effect of land-sea management based on the effects of climate change in the future, using a lower trophic level ecosystem model for Toyama Bay.